By any reasonable technical analysis on the weekly chart, AUDUSD is still in an uptrend. One could argue that the pair recently completed an ABC correction with the drop from 1.1012 to 1.0537 being leg A, the rise to 1.0889 being B, and the slump to 1.0441 being almost the point at 1.0414 where C would equal A. If this were true, then one would expect price to resume rising and to surpass the 1.1012 high. I do have price targets up to 1.14. However, the pair is stumbling a bit in a resistance area.
From the 1.0441 low, Aussie has reached a high of 1.0757. On the daily chart, the picture appears corrective with a three-wave structure down to the 1.0441 price. This rise, then, would be wave B, a remnant of the former trend. The high so far of 1.0757 is near the monthly 1.0746 pivot calculation as well as near the .382 retracement of 1.0724 (1.0257/1.1012).
I had a sell order on the table that was filled Friday at 1.0725. I have moved the stop to breakeven. A more reasonable stop would be just above the recent high (1.0757) but I have been out of the market for a few days and need to get my bearings back. I can always short again if this one stops out. If price moves above 1.0889, I expect that would mean the larger trend is resuming. Note that there is positive divergence on the four-hour chart.
If the price breaks below 1.0607, the downtrend line beginning at 1.1012 on the four-hour chart, support is at 1.0567, 1.0441, and 1.0359.
Here is the four-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—weekly and monthly
Last week, Euro closed above the downtrend line drawn from the 2008 highs. Price action today has moved above last week's high of 1.4325 to a high of 1.4424. The monthly chart shows an engulfing candle forming (outside bar) with a higher high and lower low than took place in April. This is occurring after four monthly candles with higher highs and higher lows. This is a warning of a possible trend change. The pair is also stuck in a confluence zone so it needs to move above 1.4490 to gain some real upward traction.
Look for support at 1.4194 (the downtrend line from the 2008 high) and 1.3969 (last week's low). Resistance is 1.4424 as well as 1.4490.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Look for support at 1.4194 (the downtrend line from the 2008 high) and 1.3969 (last week's low). Resistance is 1.4424 as well as 1.4490.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Labels:
eurusd
EURUSD—small bounce
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Yesterday, I traced out the move down from 1.4346 as being impulsive with the price action rise from 1.3970 possibly being a 4th wave. That wave topped at 1.4133 and price began to decline but only got as far as 1.4014 (two candles on the hourly chart were at that low). Since then, price has risen again with two candles topping on the hourly chart at 1.4094. Calculating this as an ABC correction from 1.4014 with A topping at 1.4093 and B dropping to 1.4044, results in 1.4093 being .618 of the A wave. Wave C would equal A at 1.4123 and would be 1.618 of A at 1.4173. However, if it continues to the latter two levels it is solidly within the resistance zone I wrote about yesterday of 1.4106 to 1.4162. In addition, an inviolate Elliott rule is that wave four cannot enter wave one's territory and that would be no higher than 1.4139. Therefore, resistance is at 1.4139. Beyond that, is 1.4233 and 1.4346.
The highest probability appears to be another move down. Note, though, that the pair is forming an ascending triangle on the hourly chart.
On the daily chart (not shown), the 1.3970 low formed a hammer so a drop below would be bad news. Support is at 1.3970, 1.3937 and 1.3863. 1.3521 is the daily uptrend line from last June.
Here is the hourly chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The highest probability appears to be another move down. Note, though, that the pair is forming an ascending triangle on the hourly chart.
On the daily chart (not shown), the 1.3970 low formed a hammer so a drop below would be bad news. Support is at 1.3970, 1.3937 and 1.3863. 1.3521 is the daily uptrend line from last June.
Here is the hourly chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
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eurusd
EURUSD—resistance
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Euro, after dropping to a low of 1.3970, has bounced to a high of 1.4119. Here it is struggling with a strong resistance zone of 1.4106 to 1.4162 that previously served as support. The .382 retracement of the move from 1.2874 to 1.4942 is at 1.4153.
On the hourly chart, price action looks impulsive with the rise to 1.4124 a possible fourth wave.
Note, that on the daily chart (not shown), the low formed a hammer so a drop below would be bad news. Support is at 1.3970 and 1.3863.
Here is the hourly chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
On the hourly chart, price action looks impulsive with the rise to 1.4124 a possible fourth wave.
Note, that on the daily chart (not shown), the low formed a hammer so a drop below would be bad news. Support is at 1.3970 and 1.3863.
Here is the hourly chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Labels:
eurusd
AUDUSD—daily chart
Aussie is drifting down within the downward sloping rectangle. The low so far is 1.0480 although it bounced a bit from there to 1.0580. On the hourly chart, the price action looks somewhat sluggish. The low of 1.0480 was below the .382 retracement of the move from .9706 to 1.1012. However, as I blogged last week, there is support in this area. The retracement of .382 of the move from .9537 to 1.1012 is 1.0439. The C leg equals the A leg of the ABC correction at 1.0414. The weekly S1 pivot calculation was 1.0444. The price objective from the triangle last week on the hourly chart was 1.0443.
The 50% retracement of 9706/11012 is around 1.0353—that is a good possibility if prices sink below the 1.0480 low. On the hourly chart, that low resulted in a hammer. The lower boundary of the rectangle is currently at 1.0293.
From a bullish perspective, this entire price action could be a bull flag on the daily chart. If so, price can still sink to the bottom of the flag (the downward sloping rectangle) at 1.0293 before rallying. There is still a long-term uptrend line in play from last June with a second touch in March. However, the market is clearly readjusting.
Here is the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The 50% retracement of 9706/11012 is around 1.0353—that is a good possibility if prices sink below the 1.0480 low. On the hourly chart, that low resulted in a hammer. The lower boundary of the rectangle is currently at 1.0293.
From a bullish perspective, this entire price action could be a bull flag on the daily chart. If so, price can still sink to the bottom of the flag (the downward sloping rectangle) at 1.0293 before rallying. There is still a long-term uptrend line in play from last June with a second touch in March. However, the market is clearly readjusting.
Here is the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Labels:
AUDUSD
Sorry about no posts today
Monday, May 23, 2011
I'm working on a project and just didn't have the time. I'll be back tomorrow.
EURUSD—weaker
Friday, May 20, 2011
It appears as though 1.44 is a struggle for the Euro. The high was 1.4336 in the last hourly candle. Euro then dropped to a low of 1.4212, breaking below what may in fact be a bear flag on the daily chart. Target of the flag is a heart-stopping 1.3350. That is a bit far away to get excited about, especially since there are significant support levels before that. The nearest one is a strong confluence zone at 1.4169/28. Additional support is at the May 16 low is 1.4067, then 1.3890, the .382 retracement of the move up from 1.2874.
If the pair is going to rally, it needs to overtake 1.44. However, the first target to get excited about is the channel from the beginning of the year at 1.4671.
Yesterday I went long at 1.4237 and was stopped out at +40 pips—another insignificant trade. As I blogged yesterday, where does one decide to get back in? Since the pair is now throwing off signals that it is weakening, I will most likely look for short entries. The lower boundary of the bear flag at 1.4246 is one possibility but I will be keeping an eye on momentum. If the pair breaks 1.4200, that is another sign of weakness.
Here is the daily chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
If the pair is going to rally, it needs to overtake 1.44. However, the first target to get excited about is the channel from the beginning of the year at 1.4671.
Yesterday I went long at 1.4237 and was stopped out at +40 pips—another insignificant trade. As I blogged yesterday, where does one decide to get back in? Since the pair is now throwing off signals that it is weakening, I will most likely look for short entries. The lower boundary of the bear flag at 1.4246 is one possibility but I will be keeping an eye on momentum. If the pair breaks 1.4200, that is another sign of weakness.
Here is the daily chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Labels:
eurusd
EURUSD—1.44 in site
Thursday, May 19, 2011
Yesterday, I wrote that 1.4319 was a likely target and Euro touched 1.4307 last night before falling back to a low of 1.4207, thus taking out my long position I had established at 1.4188. I probably should have left the stop at breakeven—19 pips isn't worth waking up for—but that's neither here nor there. The question, once taken out, is does one get back in? If so, where? It always amazes me that traders who get stopped out don't have a clue as to the answers to these questions.
On the short, three-hour chart, I think it's possible the Euro can get to 1.4400 but it seems as though it's going to be a long grind. The high last night of 1.4307 was only 20 pips higher than the day before. Obviously, there is some pressure on the pair. However, as long as the Euro stays above 1.4261, higher highs are possible. 1.4390 is .382 of the move down from 1.4942 to 1.4049 and 1.4342 is .618 of the move down from 1.4588. 1.4440 is 1.618 of the A leg of the ABC correction I wrote about yesterday. Moving right along the upper boundary of the rectangle on the three-hour chart, the boundary hits a confluence point around 1.4386. So, I entered long again earlier this morning, albeit at a much less attractive price than yesterday (1.4237 versus the prior 1.4188).
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
On the short, three-hour chart, I think it's possible the Euro can get to 1.4400 but it seems as though it's going to be a long grind. The high last night of 1.4307 was only 20 pips higher than the day before. Obviously, there is some pressure on the pair. However, as long as the Euro stays above 1.4261, higher highs are possible. 1.4390 is .382 of the move down from 1.4942 to 1.4049 and 1.4342 is .618 of the move down from 1.4588. 1.4440 is 1.618 of the A leg of the ABC correction I wrote about yesterday. Moving right along the upper boundary of the rectangle on the three-hour chart, the boundary hits a confluence point around 1.4386. So, I entered long again earlier this morning, albeit at a much less attractive price than yesterday (1.4237 versus the prior 1.4188).
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Labels:
eurusd
EURUSD—resistance
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
The Euro touched a 1.4287 high late last night, just above the weekly 10 EMA of 1.4261. As I wrote on Monday, the weekly 10 EMA has been support since early March. Now it looks as though it may be serving as resistance.
On the three-hour chart, the pair might be in an ABC correction beginning with the low of 1.4049, going to A at 1.4244 and B at 1.4124. The potential price for C is 1.4245, 1.4319, or 1.4440. Of the three, I like 1.4319 (where C equals A) since that equates with 1.4326 which would be the top of the rectangle. This is also near a .382 retracement of the move down from 1.4548.
Support is at 1.4121 and 1.4049.
I went long yesterday at 1.4188. Obviously, I have moved my stop to breakeven.
Here's a three-hour chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
On the three-hour chart, the pair might be in an ABC correction beginning with the low of 1.4049, going to A at 1.4244 and B at 1.4124. The potential price for C is 1.4245, 1.4319, or 1.4440. Of the three, I like 1.4319 (where C equals A) since that equates with 1.4326 which would be the top of the rectangle. This is also near a .382 retracement of the move down from 1.4548.
Support is at 1.4121 and 1.4049.
I went long yesterday at 1.4188. Obviously, I have moved my stop to breakeven.
Here's a three-hour chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Labels:
eurusd
AUDUSD—hourly chart
Aussie broke above the triangle yesterday to a high of 1.0665. This was just above former short-term price resistance and price is now drifting downward and has almost reached the extended line of the triangle from yesterday's hourly chart.
This may serve as support (at/above 1.0559) or it could have been a fake-out move. If price bounces from there, it's a failed pattern (at least from the Elliott perspective) and could be the basis for some good gains. However, one will want to watch momentum if trading on this short time-frame.
One can look at this entire mess from the price high of 1.1012 as a complex correction, a double from an Elliott perspective.
Support is still present in the 1.05 area. A retracement of .382 of the move from .9706 to 1.1012 is 1.0513 and that same price is the monthly S1 pivot calculation. The weekly 10 EMA is 1.0533. There is also the psychological 1.05 round number.
Beneath 1.05 is also good support down to 1.04. The retracement of .382 of the move from .9537 to 1.1012 is 1.0439. The C leg equals the A leg of the ABC correction at 1.0414. The weekly S1 pivot calculation is 1.0444. The price objective from the triangle itself is 1.0443. After 1.04 is 1.0359, (50% of .9706/1.1012).
Resistance is 1.0665, then 1.0717.
Here is the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
This may serve as support (at/above 1.0559) or it could have been a fake-out move. If price bounces from there, it's a failed pattern (at least from the Elliott perspective) and could be the basis for some good gains. However, one will want to watch momentum if trading on this short time-frame.
One can look at this entire mess from the price high of 1.1012 as a complex correction, a double from an Elliott perspective.
Support is still present in the 1.05 area. A retracement of .382 of the move from .9706 to 1.1012 is 1.0513 and that same price is the monthly S1 pivot calculation. The weekly 10 EMA is 1.0533. There is also the psychological 1.05 round number.
Beneath 1.05 is also good support down to 1.04. The retracement of .382 of the move from .9537 to 1.1012 is 1.0439. The C leg equals the A leg of the ABC correction at 1.0414. The weekly S1 pivot calculation is 1.0444. The price objective from the triangle itself is 1.0443. After 1.04 is 1.0359, (50% of .9706/1.1012).
Resistance is 1.0665, then 1.0717.
Here is the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Labels:
AUDUSD
AUDUSD—triangle
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Aussie is still below its broken trend line. The dip to 1.0514 took it slightly below last week's hammer low of 1.0537. This is not good. It is currently coiling within a symmetrical triangle. Symmetrical triangles are often continuation moves although they do not have to be. From an Elliott perspective, a triangle always resolves with price action continuing in the direction from which it entered the triangle, downward in this case. Looking at price behavior from the high of 1.1012, an ABC correction is taking place, with the C wave unfolding. The potential price for the C wave is 1.0595 at .618 of A, 1.0414 where it would be equal to A, and 1.0120 where it would be 1.618 of A.
There is some good support in the 1.05 area. A retracement of .382 of the move from .9706 to 1.1012 is 1.0513 and that same price is the monthly S1 pivot calculation. The weekly 10 EMA is 1.0533. There is also the psychological 1.05 round number.
Beneath 1.05 is also good support down to 1.04. The retracement of .382 of the move from .9537 to 1.1012 is 1.0439. The C leg equals the A leg of the ABC correction at 1.0414. The weekly S1 pivot calculation is 1.0444. The price objective from the triangle itself is 1.0443. After 1.04 is 1.0359, (50% of .9706/1.1012).
Triangle resistance is 1.0604. There should be one more move up to this price before prices break downward (if they are going to break downward). Short-term price resistance is at 1.0642 and then 1.0717.
Here is the one-hour chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
There is some good support in the 1.05 area. A retracement of .382 of the move from .9706 to 1.1012 is 1.0513 and that same price is the monthly S1 pivot calculation. The weekly 10 EMA is 1.0533. There is also the psychological 1.05 round number.
Beneath 1.05 is also good support down to 1.04. The retracement of .382 of the move from .9537 to 1.1012 is 1.0439. The C leg equals the A leg of the ABC correction at 1.0414. The weekly S1 pivot calculation is 1.0444. The price objective from the triangle itself is 1.0443. After 1.04 is 1.0359, (50% of .9706/1.1012).
Triangle resistance is 1.0604. There should be one more move up to this price before prices break downward (if they are going to break downward). Short-term price resistance is at 1.0642 and then 1.0717.
Here is the one-hour chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Labels:
AUDUSD
EURUSD—key support
Monday, May 16, 2011
The Euro dipped below a daily key support range of 1.4115/84 with its dip to Friday’s low of 1.4067. It closed at 1.4118 which is just within the range. The prior price low on April 18 was 1.4157.
On the weekly chart, the close was between the 10 (1.4261) and 20 (1.4041) weekly EMA. The 10 EMA has been support since the week ending 4 March 2011. Notably, price broke the weekly uptrend line drawn from January and RSI dipped below its uptrend line. Trend line breaks are a warning. In addition, it’s a nice ABC correction, chart wise (however charts don’t make the moves).
If price can’t stabilize here, then the break of the weekly EMA 20, price support, and the psychological 1.40 leads to a major support zone from 1.3852 to 1.3908. There are several components to this support zone. 1.3908 is 50% of the move from 1.2874 to 1.4942 and 1.3902 is the weekly pivot S2 support. 1.3862 was .618 of the move down from the Nov. 2009 high of 1.5144 to 1.1876. 1.3852 is parity. All this will make for a very strong support zone. If this zone breaks, then 1.3500 is possible. That would be at the uptrend line from the 1.1876 low in June 2010.
Here’s the weekly chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
On the weekly chart, the close was between the 10 (1.4261) and 20 (1.4041) weekly EMA. The 10 EMA has been support since the week ending 4 March 2011. Notably, price broke the weekly uptrend line drawn from January and RSI dipped below its uptrend line. Trend line breaks are a warning. In addition, it’s a nice ABC correction, chart wise (however charts don’t make the moves).
If price can’t stabilize here, then the break of the weekly EMA 20, price support, and the psychological 1.40 leads to a major support zone from 1.3852 to 1.3908. There are several components to this support zone. 1.3908 is 50% of the move from 1.2874 to 1.4942 and 1.3902 is the weekly pivot S2 support. 1.3862 was .618 of the move down from the Nov. 2009 high of 1.5144 to 1.1876. 1.3852 is parity. All this will make for a very strong support zone. If this zone breaks, then 1.3500 is possible. That would be at the uptrend line from the 1.1876 low in June 2010.
Here’s the weekly chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Labels:
eurusd
Traveling
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
I'm traveling the next few days so won't get much chance to post. I will be at the MTA conference on Thursday and Friday in New York so I'll post some tidbits from the presentations there.
USD Index—Weekly
Monday, May 9, 2011
Last week was a nice bullish engulfing candle for the USD. One could make the case for the recent low of 72.69 being an Elliott wave two. This would suggest that the price behavior for the last two years from the 89.63 high was a complex, double zigzag correction (WXY). One could also argue against this, i.e. the move that ended at 88.66 was an ABC correction with the downtrend now resuming.
Another way to look at the weekly chart is as a contracting rectangle. I like this interpretation as it is simple, in line with Occam's Razor. The top of the rectangle is at 88. However, whether one chooses the optimistic Elliott interpretation or the rectangle one, the next move should be up. If the buck can climb above 75 then next resistance is at 75.82, then 78.87 and 81.45. Support is obviously the recent low of 72.69, then 71.31 and 70.67.
Here is the weekly chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Another way to look at the weekly chart is as a contracting rectangle. I like this interpretation as it is simple, in line with Occam's Razor. The top of the rectangle is at 88. However, whether one chooses the optimistic Elliott interpretation or the rectangle one, the next move should be up. If the buck can climb above 75 then next resistance is at 75.82, then 78.87 and 81.45. Support is obviously the recent low of 72.69, then 71.31 and 70.67.
Here is the weekly chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Labels:
USD
AUDUSD—3-hour price
Friday, May 6, 2011
On the regular 3-hour price chart, the Aussie formed a hammer candle at the low. However, it broke its uptrend line on the way down and I take trend lines seriously. Nonetheless, based on the hammer and the P&F chart support I blogged about below, I bought yesterday at 1.0618. Note, though, that it's at the short-term downtrend line resistance. This could be 4th wave, the remnant of the prior uptrend. Time to take a little off the table in the way of profits.
Here's the three-hour chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the three-hour chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Labels:
AUDUSD
AUDUSD—P&F
On my three-hour point and figure chart (P&F), the 45° internal support line held yesterday's drop to 1.0537.
A P&F chart shows only price change and disregards time. Because the chart does not change unless price changes by a predetermined amount, many see these types of charts as a way of depicting uncontaminated supply and demand. There is also a belief it shows volume indirectly since price does not usually change unless there is volume behind the change.
The "X" column means price is increasing; the "0" column, that it is decreasing. The 45° support line is more objective than trend lines drawn on regular price charts (at least according to aficionados of the method).
I find the use of P&F charts valuable but use them as an adjunct to my other approaches.
Here is the 3-hour chart for the AUDUSD. I draw it on a closing basis for the three-hour period. One can see that the The 45° support line held nicely and the pair has rallied. This line was also at the point of a triple breakout on the chart. Resistance on this chart is now at 1.0950.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
A P&F chart shows only price change and disregards time. Because the chart does not change unless price changes by a predetermined amount, many see these types of charts as a way of depicting uncontaminated supply and demand. There is also a belief it shows volume indirectly since price does not usually change unless there is volume behind the change.
The "X" column means price is increasing; the "0" column, that it is decreasing. The 45° support line is more objective than trend lines drawn on regular price charts (at least according to aficionados of the method).
I find the use of P&F charts valuable but use them as an adjunct to my other approaches.
Here is the 3-hour chart for the AUDUSD. I draw it on a closing basis for the three-hour period. One can see that the The 45° support line held nicely and the pair has rallied. This line was also at the point of a triple breakout on the chart. Resistance on this chart is now at 1.0950.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Labels:
AUDUSD
EURUSD—nearing major support
Thursday, May 5, 2011
Most recent low is 1.4654. The 38.2% retracement of the move from 1.4157 to 1.4882 is 1.4605; 50% retracement is 1.4520. The April congestion zone was also around 1.4520. The annual pivot calculation for R1 is 1.4683. The monthly pivot is 1.4584; weekly S1 is 1.4573.
What this means is the Euro is in a strong support zone from here down to 1.4520. That's 130 pips below the most recent low so the zone is rather large. However, it also means that it could base anywhere in this zone. Obviously, if it breaks 1.4520, it's huah for the bears, especially if there is a weekly close below here.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
What this means is the Euro is in a strong support zone from here down to 1.4520. That's 130 pips below the most recent low so the zone is rather large. However, it also means that it could base anywhere in this zone. Obviously, if it breaks 1.4520, it's huah for the bears, especially if there is a weekly close below here.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Labels:
eurusd
AUDUSD—weekly support
Weekly support from the steep uptrend line drawn from .9706 is 1.0647. The most recent low is 1.0643. A break below this opens up 1.0570 and 1.0444.
It's also possible the pair will base here. Watch momentum on the shorter-term charts. For example, on the one-hour chart, there is positive divergence with RSI.
It's also possible the pair will base here. Watch momentum on the shorter-term charts. For example, on the one-hour chart, there is positive divergence with RSI.
Labels:
AUDUSD
EURUSD—Coiling
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
On the three and one-hour charts, Euro is coiling in a symmetrical triangle. From an Elliott point of view, a triangle is a continuation move with a price target around 1.5015. Note that there would be one more leg down on this triangle to complete the E leg. Thus, one could go long if it reaches this, around 1.4790.
There is short-term negative divergence with RSI on the three-hour chart, although longer term, price and RSI remain in an uptrend together. The triangle also followed a broadening pattern. Broadening patterns after highs are often deadly. However, the combination of the broadening pattern and the triangle result in a rough diamond pattern. If this is a diamond, subsequent moves are usually rapid.
Support is at 1.4790, 1.4728/11, 1.4689, 1.4639, 1.4528 and 1.4496. First resistance is 1.4902, then 1.4961 and 1.5000/15. After that, there is 1.5105/16, 1.5163 and a potential price target at 1.5163.
Here's the three-hour chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
There is short-term negative divergence with RSI on the three-hour chart, although longer term, price and RSI remain in an uptrend together. The triangle also followed a broadening pattern. Broadening patterns after highs are often deadly. However, the combination of the broadening pattern and the triangle result in a rough diamond pattern. If this is a diamond, subsequent moves are usually rapid.
Support is at 1.4790, 1.4728/11, 1.4689, 1.4639, 1.4528 and 1.4496. First resistance is 1.4902, then 1.4961 and 1.5000/15. After that, there is 1.5105/16, 1.5163 and a potential price target at 1.5163.
Here's the three-hour chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Labels:
eurusd
EURUSD—possible price resistance, support and targets
Monday, May 2, 2011
If the market continues to hammer the USD, Euro will likely continue to rise. What are some possible resistance levels and price targets?
Weekly pivot calculations provide an R1 resistance level at 1.4961 and R2 at 1.5116. The latter ties nicely with the monthly R1 level at 1.5105. On the weekly chart, one can identify an ABC correction. A begins at 1.1876 with a three wave move up to 1.4283; B ends at 1.2859; and C is in progress with a target of 1.5266.
Another way of looking at this entire move is to consider it a harmonic move on the weekly chart of AB=CD with C to D still in progress. Taking the B to C retracement, would result in a price target of 1.5163. That is close to the resistance levels from the pivot calculations above. Looking at the monthly chart, one can trace out an AB=CD move in progress (AB=1.1876 to 1.4283 with C beginning at 1.2971) and the target is 1.5378. I think that is the high end for any move.
Support is at 1.4728/11, 1.4520, 1.4450/34, and a strong zone in the 1.4184/15 range.
Here's the weekly chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Weekly pivot calculations provide an R1 resistance level at 1.4961 and R2 at 1.5116. The latter ties nicely with the monthly R1 level at 1.5105. On the weekly chart, one can identify an ABC correction. A begins at 1.1876 with a three wave move up to 1.4283; B ends at 1.2859; and C is in progress with a target of 1.5266.
Another way of looking at this entire move is to consider it a harmonic move on the weekly chart of AB=CD with C to D still in progress. Taking the B to C retracement, would result in a price target of 1.5163. That is close to the resistance levels from the pivot calculations above. Looking at the monthly chart, one can trace out an AB=CD move in progress (AB=1.1876 to 1.4283 with C beginning at 1.2971) and the target is 1.5378. I think that is the high end for any move.
Support is at 1.4728/11, 1.4520, 1.4450/34, and a strong zone in the 1.4184/15 range.
Here's the weekly chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Labels:
eurusd
March to April results
April was especially nice if one was long Aussie, Euro or Cable to the USD. The USD took a beating everywhere. EURGBP went almost nowhere.
Labels:
Monthly Summary
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2011
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May
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- AUDUSD—resistance
- EURUSD—weekly and monthly
- Blog will return Tuesday 31 May
- EURUSD—small bounce
- EURUSD—resistance
- AUDUSD—daily chart
- Sorry about no posts today
- EURUSD—weaker
- EURUSD—1.44 in site
- EURUSD—resistance
- AUDUSD—hourly chart
- Trouble posting
- AUDUSD—triangle
- EURUSD—key support
- Week High, Low, Close
- Traveling
- USD Index—Weekly
- Weekly High Low Close
- AUDUSD—3-hour price
- AUDUSD—P&F
- EURUSD—nearing major support
- AUDUSD—weekly support
- EURUSD—Coiling
- No posts today, Tuesday
- EURUSD—possible price resistance, support and targets
- March to April results
- Weekly High Low Close
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